Tender Rejection Rates in 2026: Why Routing Guides Are Failing
Tender rejection rates have spiked to multi-year highs in June 2026, and the routing guides most shippers built during the soft freight market of 2023–2025 are no longer holding. Van rejections are running at 18.3% nationally, reefer at 25%, and flatbed at 33%—meaning carriers are turning down one in three flatbed loads tendered to primary contract partners.
What Is a Tender Rejection Rate?
A tender rejection rate measures the percentage of electronic load tenders that carriers decline to accept. When a primary carrier says no, freight falls to backup providers—at higher rates—or hits the spot market entirely. The SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index (STRI) tracks this signal in near-real time across the full electronic tender network.
A balanced market runs 5–10%. Sustained readings above 12–15% reliably predict contract rate increases within 90–120 days. STRI is currently at levels not seen since the 2022 post-COVID unwind.
Why Are Tender Rejections So High Right Now?
This is a capacity story, not a demand spike. Several forces have converged heading into July:
- Carrier attrition. FMCSA enforcement removed tens of thousands of non-compliant carriers and drivers through 2025 and into 2026. New carrier entry has stalled due to administrative issues with the DOT's MOTUS registration system. Net capacity has been declining for over a year.
- Contract rates lag spot by 20–25%. Shippers who bid freight in 2024 or early 2025 locked in below-market rates. Carriers holding those contracts are rejecting tenders to capture spot market economics instead.
- Calendar compression. June 30 is quarter-end, and July 4 falls on a Saturday—a known pressure point where shipping volume compresses into fewer calendar days, amplifying rejection rates.
- Elevated diesel. DOE diesel costs remain stubbornly high, widening the gap between contracted all-in rates and actual execution cost for carriers.
By the Numbers: What SONAR Indices Are Showing
The divergence across equipment types tells its own story:
| Index | Equipment | Current Rejection Rate |
|---|---|---|
| STRIV | Dry Van | ~18.3% |
| STRIR | Reefer | ~25% |
| STRIF | Flatbed | ~33% |
Dry van (STRIV) is the broadest market health signal. A sustained move above 15% is the threshold where routing guide compliance begins to structurally break down—carriers start optimizing their own networks rather than honoring committed lanes.
Reefer (STRIR) is being driven by peak produce season, which runs May through September. When reefer capacity is fully absorbed by produce, any incremental demand from retail, pharma, or temperature-sensitive CPG hits the spot market immediately.
Flatbed (STRIF) is the most striking signal. A 33% rejection rate reflects a recovering manufacturing sector generating more outbound volume against a carrier pool that is significantly smaller than it was three years ago.
On the demand side, STVI (SONAR Truckload Volume Index) has moved to multi-year highs, confirming that freight demand is real—this isn't a statistical artifact of seasonal patterns.
What This Means for Spot and Contract Rates
The NTI (National Truckload Rate Index, dry van spot) is running approximately 20–25% above year-ago levels. The RTI (reefer spot) is similarly elevated. The spread between VCRPM1 (Van Contract Rate Per Mile) and NTI is the widest it has been since 2022—and that spread is exactly what is driving carriers to reject tenders in the first place.
That spread will close. Either contract rates reprice upward in Q3 and Q4 mini-bids, or shippers absorb escalating spot costs until they do.
15%+ STRI · Routing guide stress.
20%+ STRI · Carriers systematically prioritizing spot over contract.
What Shippers Should Do Before Q3
Given where STRI, STRIV, and STRIR are tracking right now, shippers have a narrow window before Q3 locks in higher baseline costs:
- Audit carrier acceptance rates. Pull your carrier-by-carrier tender acceptance for the past 90 days. Carriers running below 80% acceptance are not providing the coverage you're paying for.
- Shorten your routing guide. Fewer committed partners who are actually executing outperforms long backup lists that rarely deliver.
- Initiate targeted mini-bids. The annual RFP is too blunt for a market moving this fast. A lane-level mini-bid on your highest-rejection corridors is a faster path to stability.
- Build spot redundancy now. Locking in relationships with reliable spot brokers before peak season is cheaper than scrambling in August.
- Watch STRIV weekly. If van rejections climb above 20%, spot market exposure becomes unavoidable for most shippers regardless of contract structure.
Watch STRI, STRIV, STRIR, and STRIF move in real time.
Market Monitor puts tender rejection data alongside spot and contract rates on one screen—so you see routing guide stress building before it hits your invoice.
Access Market Monitor today →FAQ: Tender Rejection Rates in 2026
What rejection rate signals a problem?
Above 10–12% signals a tightening market. Above 15% indicates routing guide stress. Above 20% means carriers are systematically prioritizing spot over contract commitments.
How do high tender rejection rates affect spot rates?
When carriers reject tenders, those loads move to the spot market, increasing spot demand and pushing NTI and RTI higher. Persistently high rejections are a reliable 60–120 day leading indicator of contract rate increases.
What SONAR indices track tender rejection data?
STRI covers the overall market. STRIV tracks dry van, STRIR covers reefer, and STRIF covers flatbed. These indices update in near-real time from the full electronic tender network.
Where can I monitor tender rejection data alongside rates?
Freight Market Monitor pulls SONAR tender rejection indices—STRI, STRIV, STRIR, and STRIF—alongside spot rates (NTI, RTI), contract rates (VCRPM1), and diesel (DOE) in a single dashboard at getfreightdata.com.